Hero Calling

I put out on Holdem Manager the stats of River call win %, to see how I was doing in my hero calls. The first half of the month I did horribly, with a win% of close to 30%. That meant that If villain bet 1/2pot on the river I need to be good 33.33% of the time and that wasn't the case. Then I started focusing more on those spots and in the last 12 days I'm winning 56% of those hero calls which Is really really good, my number now for the month has rise to 46.7% which is profitable when villain bets 3/4pot on the river (I need to be good 42.86%).

This is an example from today, lets see the hand and examine what happened:

At first glance, it kind of looks like I'm a huge fish that can't fold a pair.

In this particular hand I didn't had any history with him and got like +600 hands so his stats where 47/3/1 , That tells me that, yeap, he is a fish. One important thing to note when looking at stats is not to make the decision solely on a number. For example his Aggression factor is 1, and a lot of people think ah. he never bluffs so I have to fold 2 pair or his aggression is 4 so I'm calling him down with Ace high. Thats not how we should be using those numbers. Its far more important to see the range of hands he is gonna have in that spot and the way he would play those hands, given what we know and use the numbers to help us draw the picture.

Now into the hand: I raise K3s (Probably is better to fold) and get called. I cbet and he called. Ok so what is his range? preflop is huge he can call me with any two. He also folds to cbets less than 50% of the times, that means he likes to floats . On that flop he is calling with any flush draw, any pair and some floats like over cards. He could slowplay, but he called pretty quickly and I expect him to at least think a little with his big hands, specially with a set/straight. Now on the turn I check and He bets Full pot pretty quickly again.

With a low aggression factor, I don't expect him to valuebet thin at all, so I don't think he have a one pair type of hand in this spot (If he does he is checking the river 100% of the time). Everything else is polarize to monsters that slowplayed the flop and his floats that are now betting (Overcards and Flushdraws). His timing and betsize are important, because are inconsistent with the story of a straight or sets that bet for value. Most fishes are affraid to scared me away and bet smaller to keep me in, specially now that I checked and it looks like I don't have anything.

The river completes a 4 to a straight board and again he bets Full pot. His value range consist on 78, Ac5c and 88. I expect him to check back here a lot with most of his range. Even with his monsters he has to be thinking that I could have a straight or my hand looks so weak that I won't call a big bet. So based in all this information I figured that he has air more than 50% of the time and thats the number I need to be good . Also he looks to be a level 1 player thinking that he can bluff this scary board with his big bets so I decided to put on my calling station jacket and called with my weak pair.

In retrospect we have to look for a couple of things before making hero calls, for example:
-Type of player, history, game flow
-Tells, tendencies (Betsize, timing)
-His range preflop+postflop(History has to make sense)
-My range (What does it look I have, and how would he play vs my range)