Thursday, March 18, 2010

Ivey vs Durrrr big hand in HSP

This was the last hand of last week episode in High stake poker:



Ivey and Durrrr have been winning and both had huge stacks (Ivey had over a million and Durrr almost 800k). Ivey just won another big pot against Jason Mercier with a hero call with 99 (overpair to the rainbow board) after Jason 3bet the flop raise with a gutshot to the wheel. Now they are playing 6 handed and a new player (Phil Laak) just sat down.

PREFLOP:
Laak raised from UTG+1 and got 3 callers, Esfandiary says something like here comes the 40k raise from durrr (cause you know, he is crazy) and Dwan do squeeze with 89s to $28,900. Now the squeeze is not that bad of a play cause it was Laak first hand and they where short handed so he will fold a big portion of his range when he get squeeze by Dwan, however he got Elezra, Ivey and Negreanu in position and all have big stacks so is a little too risky to try it in that specific line up.

Anyway they all fold with exception of Mr. Ivey who calls with A6s (effective stacks are like 750k).

THE FLOP:
The flop comes Td Qc Kd with around $70k in the pot. That flop hit really hard Dwan's value range so he has to make a continuation bet that will get a fold to most pocket pairs and suited connectors. He bets $45,800. Ivey had the nut flush draw + a gutshot, both draws to the nuts so he is not going anywhere. The only thing is that they are too deep for him to raise the flop, cause he can't expect Durrr to rebluff him often enough to make that play profitable and when the money do go in he is going against big monsters. So is better to just call and let Dwan bluff if he hits his draw.

THE TURN:
The 3s hits the turn the board reads Td Qc Kd 3s a complete blank and Dwan fires again $123k into a pot of 162k so its a pretty big bet. Now Ivey doesn't have the direct odds to call here, but Durrrr still has over half a million behind which at least half of that could be of implied odds if he thinks Durrr will bluff or have a strong hand, and maybe Ace high can win the pot when Tom gives up some of his bluffs. Ivey Calls.

THE RIVER:
Another blank 6c, board reads Td Qc Kd 3s 6c. By this street Tom knows that Ivey doesn't have that big of a hand unless he slowplayed something, but most big hands would have 3bet Laak preflop to isolate him and still have position. Also he could have something like a pair + draw that won't stand the heat (QJ,JT,KJ) and given that he just won a big pot with a hero call against Jason Mercier he is a little less likely to go for it again (but this is Ivey so who knows). Also the fact that Tom bets $268,200 means that If Ivey calls and lose he will be back to even in the session (He was up +500k). Those are things that Durrr might have considered by this time and for sure that last bet will be profitable in those circumstances.

In Ivey's shoes even if he knows Durrr is capable of such a play, he can't call cause Tom could even be bluffing with a better hand like 99 (also Tom can't have the nut flush draw so there are less combination in his bluff range), and a shove would be too risky since he had like $280k left and there would have been over a million in the pot.

So all in all both players played the hand the best way possible and the fact that Ivey tanked for so long tells me that he knew what was going on, and didn't liked to fold even thou he knew it was the correct play.

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